Shale gas/new drilling technology the answer to peak oil ?
Did anyone else hear this news item this morning on the Today Programme?
Oxford University’s Prof. Peter Helm saying ‘We are awash with fossil fuels’ . The argument is that with new drilling technology, shale gas and underground coal gasification has turned ‘hard to get’ fossil fuels into ‘easy to get’ fossil fuels:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9685000/9685024.stm
I'd welcome some insight on this - this view seems to be gaining credence very rapidly - The Sunday Times columnist Irwin Steltzer (always a peak oil denier) has been pushing this perspective for a few months. Seems to me that if we are awash with fossil fuels, the market (which neo-classicist economists love so much) doesn't know it (rising oil prices since the mid 2000s). Helm, Stelzer and others of this view might also be forgetting/not concerned that gas is still a fossil resource and a carbon emitter, though better than coal - and also less easily adapted into all the things that oil is used for. What's the evidence and what should be our response as Transitioners when faced with this perspective ?
What Lord Lawson didn't tell you about shale gas
There may be enough fossil fuels around to, potentially, power the world for a century or more. But most have been too expensive to extract. And that’s not entirely a bad thing: burning all of them would lead to extreme global warming.
In fact, I think a lot of people have been hoping that peak oil would save us from global warming. While the claims made for shale gas are probably exaggerated, this may buy more time for continuing the existing unsustainable economy, leading to a bigger economic and environmental disaster in the end.
I suggest the following response:
1. Fossil fuels will run out eventually, shale gas just buys a bit more time. Renewables can last until the Sun goes nova.
2. Shale gas will do nothing to help global warming unless it displaces coal; if it displaces renewables and energy efficiency improvements, then it will make global warming worse.
3. Our highly centralised economy, including the national grid, is still extremely vulnerable to external shocks. Generating renewable power throughout the UK makes it much harder for a natural disaster or terrorist act to knock out the entire economy.
4. Localised control of power generation and distribution reduces the level of central control over people’s lives, both by the state and large corporations.
Hope this helps.