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Economic Evaluation

Published on June 30, 2011 by Fiona Ward

This work is part of the REconomy project.

Project aim

It aims to create a generic, replicable process that can be used to estimate the potential of any new, local Transition Economy*, primarily in terms of quantitative economic value, but also exploring social and environmental outcomes.

*A Transition economy is, for example, far less reliant on fossil fuels and globalised systems of production and distribution, respects resource limits, is inclusive, diverse and comprehensive, provides jobs, goods and services needed by the local community and aims to redress economic inequality.

Project objectives

  • through working with three different Transition Initiatives (TIs) Manchester (tbc), Totnes and Hereford, to experiment with different processes and activities to maximise learnings and produce the best generic process;
  • to define an appropriate scale and scope for this work;
  • to incorporate relevant existing work in each area;
  • to establish a common database with baseline public data, and a set of relevant measures to assess progress; 
  • to provide the resulting information in an engaging way that is of direct interest to the residents,  organisations and businesses;
  • to recommend projects and enterprises that would realise the main opportunities;
  • to stimulate more co-ordinated action between local public, private and third sector organisations, who then take responsibility for the new projects and enterprises in the subsequent phase; and
  • to link to the wider REconomy work that is helping ten TIs (including the 3 in this Economic Evaluation project) to connect with existing businesses and stimulate new social enterprises.

Beneficiaries

The direct beneficiaries of this project will be the organisations and public bodies that shape and influence the future of each of the three TI areas. This work will help them to make co-ordinated strategic decisions that result in a stronger and more sustainable local economy, improving the resilience of their local communities. Therefore indirectly and longer-term, the beneficiaries include the people living and working in each of the areas, as well as the local businesses.

Approach

The project’s scope will ensure it explores the most critical areas in depth, rather than taking a shallow look across a wide range of topics of varying importance. While it may vary for each TI, we propose 4 main focus areas:

  1. Energy
  2. Food
  3. Retrofit of housing stock
  4. Primary goods and services (i.e. 1-2 sectors most important to the locale)

The kind of questions we wish to answer include, for example:

Food 

  1. What's the value of all the food bought from local independent shops vs others (local spend)? 
  2. How much of the food sold by anyone is produced (or processed?) locally (local source) - how much of this could be produced locally and what might that be worth?
  3. Combined potential - what's a realistic target for greater share of local spend and source? Use this for projections.
  4. What would this projection mean for local jobs and skills?
  5. What would this mean for the local community, the local environment, the wider environment (health, wellbeing, resilience, climate change etc.)?
  6. How many people could [area] sustain if all local land was used for food production for local people, and what’s the value of this food economy?

Food indicators:% local food spend of total, % local food source of total, # food-related jobs, food-related skills profile, % of food-viable land in production, # tonnes of carbon saved due to re-localised food.

Energy

  1. How much money is spent on energy today in [area], where does the money go and what’s the source of this energy?
  2. What’s the economic potential of our local renewable energy assets?
  3. What's a realistic target for greater share of energy spend give our local assets, and taking into account need for overall energy reduction?
  4. What would this projection mean for local jobs and skills?
  5. What would this mean for the local community, the local environment, the wider environment (health, wellbeing, resilience, climate change etc.)?

Energy-related indicators: % local energy spend of total, # energy-related jobs, energy-related skills profile, % of viable energy-assets in production (on kWh basis), # tonnes carbon saved thanks to installed RE capacity.

Retrofit

  1. What’s the ‘energy cost’ of the low energy performance of our local buildings today i.e. how much money is wasted?
  2. What’s the potential value of the work (materials and services) required to bring homes and other buildings to a reasonable energy performance?
  3. How much of these good and services could be provided locally?
  4. What would this projection mean for local jobs and skills?
  5. What would this mean for the local community, the local environment, the wider environment (health, wellbeing, resilience, climate change etc.)?

Retrofit indicators: % local homes with acceptable loft insulation, % local homes with ‘reasonable’ energy performance rating, # retrofit-related jobs, retrofit-related skills profile, # tonnes carbon saved through local retrofit work.

What we will produce

A generic replicable process and toolkit, including a database with relevant public data, and how-to guides/training materials; and a final report from each of the three TIs that communicates the key findings and recommendations, and a set of baseline data for each.

Timing

The project will run from June 2011 for about 12 months.

For more info please contact Fiona Ward.